Congressional Quarterly Daily Monitor: U-Shaped Open District Should Provide a “W” for Democrats
By Adam Graham-Silverman
Incumbency is perhaps the best predictor of elections. Only nine House incumbents lost in 2000. So “open seat” races, those in which there is no incumbent on the ballot, account for much of the partisan competition in most election years.
But not all open seats are created equally competitive. Take this year’s contest in California’s strongly Democratic 39th District — which has barely registered with politics watchers, nationally and even locally.
A multi-candidate Democratic primary March 5 appears certain to nominate the 39th District’s representative for the 108th Congress. The Republicans will have a nominee, but one who is unlikely to have a chance to win in November.
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